Motor-oil shortages may last into 2027 despite Iran deal

Auto repair shops in Tokyo and dealerships in Detroit report that shortages of motor oil, paint thinner and other petroleum-derived products could continue into 2027 despite a US–Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Mechanics in Tokyo say deliveries stopped in March and none arrived after April. Hiroyuki Nakamura, director at Shin Etsu Denso, described oil supplies as ‘almost completely wiped out’ since the conflict began.

Fuchu Car, a suburban Tokyo repair shop, reported securing a single 300-ml bottle of ‘pearl white’ paint in two weeks, enough for one job. The shop’s president, Masato Yagai, said repainting in that finish may have to be suspended if supplies run out.

Smaller independent garages say larger buyers and automakers are stockpiling limited supplies. Dealers in Detroit report longer waits for customers, delays to routine maintenance and some cosmetic repairs, and occasional rationing of products to prioritise essential work.

The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly 20% of global oil flows. Analysts at Rystad Energy and ING note that even if shipments through Hormuz resume, shipping and trade patterns will take time to return to pre-disruption levels. Restoring regular shipments also depends on shipowners and insurers returning to the route.

US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that a preliminary agreement had been signed by both countries, though details remain unclear.

A US trade group projects prices for petroleum-derived products are unlikely to ease until mid-2027 because inventories must be rebuilt and reliable routes reestablished. Many buyers have already shifted to alternative suppliers and continue to rely on those arrangements.

Industry executives point to longer lead times, higher insurance costs and logistical constraints as reasons smaller shops are unlikely to see quick relief. The shortages are affecting service schedules at franchise service centres and neighbourhood garages, and are influencing repair priorities and parts availability.