Morningstar: SpaceX fair value $780B, $970B below IPO

Morningstar values SpaceX at about $780 billion, roughly $970 billion below the company’s $1.75 trillion IPO target. SpaceX plans to start its roadshow on June 4 and list on Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPCX, aiming to raise about $75 billion. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan are listed as underwriters.

The firm split its valuation into three parts. It assigns about $611 billion to core operations: the launch business and the Starlink satellite broadband network. Morningstar noted SpaceX has reduced launch costs with reusable rockets and built a large satellite constellation, but flagged limits including satellite capacity, network performance, regulatory limits on spectrum and growing competition in broadband markets.

The second pillar covers artificial intelligence projects such as xAI and the Grok model. Morningstar assigns about $170 billion to AI-related outcomes but treats those as probability-weighted and speculative. Nicolas Owens, Morningstar’s equity analyst, wrote the firm does not view Grok as a leading AI lab today and pointed to competition for talent, customers and computing resources.

The third pillar is speculative technologies including orbital data centers and space-based computing. Morningstar noted commercial-scale space-based computing has not been demonstrated and that parts of the AI valuation depend on technologies that have yet to be built.

SpaceX’s last secondary-market valuation reached about $1.5 trillion. Morningstar described the $780 billion fair-value estimate as a separate assessment of intrinsic value and wrote that investor enthusiasm in private markets has been strong. The firm added that limited IPO float and high demand could lift the stock in the near term.

Morningstar wrote the company appears ‘significantly overvalued’ and added investors may find lower entry points after the IPO. The firm indicated its analysis separates current business performance from the price investors may pay at the offering.

SpaceX operates a leading commercial and government launch franchise and a large satellite network. Investors will observe launch revenue, Starlink subscriber growth, AI developments and progress on speculative projects as the company begins public reporting.