Midyear markets snapshot: 10 charts that shaped 2026

U.S. equities approached all-time highs in the first half of 2026 while several long-term valuation measures reached historic levels. The Buffett Indicator, which compares total U.S. market value to GDP, registered 218.1% in Q1 2026, about 56.6% above its historical trendline. The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (P/E 10) closed June at 39.5.

A comparative analysis of four valuation indicators-Regression to Trend, Crestmont P/E, Q‑Ratio and P/E 10-showed a consensus range of market valuation between roughly 116% and 207% above fair-value benchmarks based on the latest monthly data.

Leverage at brokerages rose as prices moved higher. Margin debt reached a record $1.42 trillion in May 2026, the highest level on record for margin borrowing.

Equity returns in the period were positive. The S&P 500 finished June up 9.55% for the first half of the year and stopped just below its all-time high. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which gives each component the same weight, gained 11.11% through June.

Fixed-income markets reflected changing expectations for monetary policy. The 10-year Treasury note traded in a range from 3.97% to 4.67% during the first half and ended June at 4.44%. The two-year Treasury traded between 3.38% and 4.24% and finished the month at 4.14%.

Consumer measures diverged from asset prices. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 10.5% to 49.5 in June, the largest one-month increase for the index in a year, but the June reading remained the second-lowest in the series, ahead of only May.

Everyday energy costs increased through June. Regular gasoline prices were $1.02 per gallon higher than at the start of the year, a 36% rise, while premium gasoline rose $1.05 per gallon, or 28%.

A composite of four National Bureau of Economic Research indicators-employment, industrial production, real retail sales and real personal income-showed an average shortfall of 0.60% below historical highs at the end of the first half of 2026, the narrowest margin in nearly seven years.

Global equity performance varied. Six of nine major indexes on a weekly watchlist posted positive year-to-date gains through June. Japan’s Nikkei 225 led the group with a 39.2% gain, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng recorded the largest decline, down 10.7% through June.

The figures above reflect monthly and quarterly data releases through June 2026, with some series reported on a May or Q1 basis where noted.