Micron Plans to Double HBM Capacity – Oversupply Risk?

Micron is reported to be investing to raise high-bandwidth memory production to about 100,000 HBM wafers per month by the end of 2026. The planned increase targets HBM4, the latest generation of stacked DRAM used with next-generation AI processors. Micron has not commented publicly on the reported capacity plans.

Industry reports put Micron’s monthly HBM output last year at roughly 40,000 to 50,000 wafers. The company aims to add about 60,000 wafers a month to reach the roughly 100,000-wafer target by the end of 2026.

HBM4 stacks multiple DRAM dies to deliver higher data bandwidth while using less power than conventional memory. HBM is used in AI accelerators and advanced GPUs where large, fast memory pools are required close to the processor.

Market-share data show shifts among suppliers. One supplier’s share rose to about one-third of the global HBM market in the second quarter of 2026, while Micron’s share fell to about 18% from near 21% a year earlier. Other major suppliers have announced capacity increases, and a Chinese manufacturer has begun limited production of advanced HBM for testing and plans further expansion in 2027.

Jack Gold, principal analyst at J.Gold Associates, wrote that memory manufacturers had been “stuck in relatively low-cost commodity memory making” and that demand for a premium product like HBM is “insatiable,” adding that “the margins are quite high.”

Gil Luria, managing director at D.A. Davidson, wrote that demand for HBM is “already more than double the current supply and still growing very fast,” and that even a substantial capacity increase “will likely not be enough to meet demand in that timeframe.”

Producers are responding with long-term fab spending and by reallocating existing capacity toward higher-margin HBM. Micron has announced large investments in U.S. memory manufacturing and research and is building a multibillion-dollar semiconductor complex in Singapore. Industry forecasts expect combined capital expenditure by the largest HBM suppliers to rise sharply between 2024 and 2027.

The memory sector has experienced boom-and-bust cycles in the past. Analysts note that rapid capacity additions in response to current shortages can create the risk of oversupply if demand slows. For now, suppliers continue to expand capacity to meet current AI-related demand.