Merchants Expect AI Agents to Checkout, Most Lack Visibility

The 2026 Global Digital Shopping Index: Merchant Edition reports a gap between merchant expectations for agentic checkout and current technical readiness. The study finds 56% of merchants expect AI agents to complete transactions unassisted this year and 58% expect agents to select payment methods based on fees and rewards, while only 23% can identify both AI-driven traffic and purchases today.

A further 21% of merchants report they can detect agent traffic but lose visibility before conversion. Eighty-seven percent of merchants say checkout needs improvement and 59% express concern that their payment stack will not meet needs within three years.

Small and medium-sized merchants report lower readiness than large firms: 19% of SMBs can identify agent purchases compared with 27% of large merchants. Merchant apps drove 57% of sales growth last year and outperformed websites on 11 of 14 checkout features. Biometric authentication is available in 42% of apps and 26% of websites.

The index records rapid adoption when infrastructure exists. Two-thirds of merchants reported tap-to-pay growth over the past year, and 62% of consumers now default to tap-to-pay in store, an increase of eight percentage points in two years.

The report notes that protocols for agentic checkout are still forming. Fraud-liability models for agent payments are being developed and platform providers are iterating publicly. The study finds there is no single finished standard to follow and that the timing of broader adoption will depend on how foundational systems are implemented.

The authors outline three priorities for preparation. First, strengthen checkout experiences merchants control by improving apps and website checkouts and closing feature gaps such as biometric authentication. The report suggests financial institutions and networks can support smaller merchants by packaging these upgrades.

Second, build visibility before adding automation. The index advises merchants to begin distinguishing agent traffic and purchases from human activity, even if identification is imperfect at first, and to make product, payment and loyalty data structured so automated agents can parse it.

Third, treat fraud controls as evolving. The index reports fraudulent charges and false declines have fallen 12 percentage points since 2024, but 60% of merchants still seek stronger protection. The report warns agent-initiated payments create authorization and identity questions that have not been tested at scale and recommends upgrading fraud controls while agent transaction volumes remain low.

The report recommends a phased approach: fix visible checkout issues, measure emerging agent activity, and keep risk controls ahead of transaction volumes while standards for agentic commerce develop.