Memory prices may jump 60%; Micron, SanDisk surge

Analyst Mehdi Hosseini at Susquehanna wrote in a client note that strong AI data-center demand has tightened supply and pushed memory prices higher. He forecasts NAND flash could rise about 60% sequentially this quarter and DRAM about 50%.

Hosseini estimated semiconductor industry revenue will reach roughly $1.5 trillion this year, with memory accounting for about 50%–55% of sales, up from a historical range of about 20%–30%. He wrote, “Memory has become the \”king\” of the semiconductor industry,” and added that “its reign is here to stay.”

The analyst projects DRAM average selling prices will climb about 50% sequentially in the current quarter and another 20% in the fourth quarter of 2026. NAND prices are forecast to jump roughly 60% this quarter and a further 25% in the following quarter. He noted that overall semiconductor average selling prices would rise more moderately if memory were excluded.

Demand for high-capacity, high-speed memory and storage in large AI systems has contributed to supply shortages and sharp price increases. High-bandwidth memory (HBM), a stacked form of DRAM used in AI accelerators, consumes more silicon per unit than conventional DRAM and can reduce the availability of standard DRAM as production shifts.

Micron is targeting a doubling of HBM production capacity by the end of the year to meet demand from companies building AI processors and servers.

The price gains have provided an earnings tailwind for memory manufacturers after a prior period of weak demand and oversupply. Micron’s stock is up about 250% year-to-date and SanDisk’s about 531%. Hosseini rates both companies positively.

Goldman Sachs identified early signs of renewed investor interest in the memory trade. Its data show gross leverage among U.S. fundamental long/short hedge funds near the 27th percentile of the past year and net leverage near the fourth percentile. Options activity has eased as the CBOE Semiconductor ETF Volatility Index fell to around 36 from roughly 65 in July.

Hosseini wrote that logic chips, including central processing units, have also seen average selling prices rise but that recent trends point to a period of stabilization. He linked some moderation to delays in the ramp of Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin AI platform, which includes new CPUs and GPUs.

Hosseini argued that higher upfront hardware costs for future AI systems do not necessarily weaken the long-term economics of AI, noting falling token costs and rising token production. He also warned that the memory market remains cyclical: rapid gains can reverse if production ramps or end-market spending weakens.

Micron’s fiscal fourth-quarter results are scheduled for Sept. 30.