May SMAs keep Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500 invested

All five ETFs in the Ivy Portfolio and the S&P 500 closed May above their 10- and 12-month simple moving averages, keeping both the model portfolio and the index in ‘invest’ positions at month-end.

The Ivy Portfolio is an equally weighted allocation modeled on the approach used by large endowments. Its five ETFs are Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) for U.S. stocks, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US (VEU) for international stocks, iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (IEF) for intermediate Treasuries, Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) for real estate, and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) for commodities. Under the strategy, a fund is held when its month-end close is above its moving average and sold to cash when it closes below.

The S&P 500 closed May at a record high with a 5.1% monthly gain. The index finished 10.1% above its 10-month simple moving average and 11.8% above its 12-month SMA. Using a 10-month exponential moving average, the index was 10.5% above that signal. The 12-month SMA marked a thirteenth consecutive month in an ‘invest’ position; the 10-month SMA and 10-month EMA each produced a second consecutive ‘invest’ month.

One fund in the Ivy mix finished May within 2% of its moving average. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (IEF) was flagged as near a potential reversal at the month-end close. Funds within 2% of their moving averages are highlighted to indicate the possibility of a signal change at the next month-end.

Moving-average rules are applied to each holding individually rather than to a broad index. The method has limited downside in prior major bear markets but can produce short-term buy or sell signals, as seen in 2020. Dividend payments can affect moving-average calculations for dividend-paying funds; historical monthly closes must be adjusted for dividends to avoid differing signals.

Monthly signals and the underlying close data are refreshed at the end of each month. The published data reference monthly closes from market sources and are valid through the market close on June 30, 2026.