Markets See Powell Leaving by May 31; Warsh Likely to Succeed

Prediction markets put a 98.6% probability on Jerome Powell leaving his post as Federal Reserve chair by May 31 and assign roughly a 99.9% probability that Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as Fed chair by mid‑May. Contracts show a 0.8% chance Powell will be out by May 14 and a 99.6% chance by June 30.

The market pricing reflects a concentrated timeline: a formal nomination would move to the Senate Banking Committee and then to a full Senate vote. Prediction-market contracts place the decision on Warsh’s confirmation around mid‑May.

Market participants have assessed the likely market impact of Powell’s departure and Warsh’s confirmation as high.

Observers are watching for an official White House announcement, scheduling notices from the Senate Banking Committee and statements from key senators that could set hearing and vote dates. Economic data releases and shifts in financial markets could alter the probabilities shown in the contracts.

Powell has led the Federal Reserve through the COVID-19 pandemic and other major economic events during his tenure. The prediction-market prices are indicators of traders’ expectations and can change quickly as new information becomes available.