Markets See 99.1% Chance Melania Will Attend Beijing Summit

Prediction market prices show a 99.1% probability that Melania Trump will attend President Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14–15. The figure rose from the previous day, according to the market snapshot, reflecting traders’ expectations that the former first lady will be present.

Other contracts tracking attendance put Jared Kushner at about 8% and developer Steve Witkoff at roughly 11%. A separate market that forecasts topics for bilateral events on May 14–15 shows a 36% probability that President Trump will mention “Japan” or “Korea.” A market on whether Trump and Xi will exchange a kiss is priced at 0.8%.

The summit brings President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping together for high-level talks in Beijing. Officials have emphasized a diplomatic focus and there is little evidence of cultural programs on the agenda. Taiwan, trade policy and security issues are listed as expected items. U.S. officials have reiterated support for Taipei’s security in prior public statements.

Prediction markets let participants buy and sell contracts that pay out if specified events occur, producing market-implied probabilities for each outcome. Prices can move quickly as new information arrives, and traders use the contracts to express expectations about attendance and statements at the summit.

Observers note that official announcements and on-the-ground reporting will confirm who attends and what is said. For now, the highest market probability is that Melania Trump will be in Beijing during the summit.