June 2026: Ivy Portfolio splits; S&P 500 remains above SMAs

At the close of the last business day in June 2026, the Ivy Portfolio’s 10-month simple moving average rule produced a cash signal for the iShares 7–10 Year Treasury ETF (IEF) after that fund closed below its 10-month average. The other four funds in the equal-weight portfolio-Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)—all finished the month above their 10-month averages and remained held under that rule.

Using a 12-month simple moving average instead, all five Ivy Portfolio ETFs closed above their averages at month-end, leaving the portfolio fully invested under the 12-month rule for a third consecutive month. The IEF finished June within 2% of its 12-month average.

The S&P 500 declined 1.1% in June, ending a two-month winning streak. The index closed the month 7.3% above its 10-month simple moving average and 8.9% above its 12-month simple moving average. A 10-month exponential moving average, which gives more weight to recent data, left the S&P 500 7.5% above that line at month-end.

The moving average method compares each fund’s month-end closing price with its chosen moving average. A close above the average indicates holding the position; a close below indicates moving that allocation to cash. The rule is applied separately to each fund in the Ivy Portfolio, so signals can differ across asset classes.

The S&P 500 figures cited use unadjusted monthly closing prices. Dividend payments and reinvestment can alter monthly moving-average calculations for ETFs and funds, so month-to-month calculations that ignore dividends may differ from adjusted results. Users who calculate their own signals should update monthly closes when dividends are paid.

Historical comparisons in the data show that 10- and 12-month moving average systems reduced exposure in prior major market declines while capturing much long-term upside since the mid-1990s. The 10-month exponential variant produced fewer short-term false signals in some periods but lagged by one month at market peaks in 2000 and 2007.

The June readings leave the Ivy Portfolio split under the two rules: under the 10-month rule only the IEF is in cash, while under the 12-month rule all five ETFs remain invested. The S&P 500 remained above its key monthly moving averages despite the monthly decline.