JPMorgan Upgrades Tesla to Neutral, Raises PT to $475

JPMorgan upgraded Tesla to “neutral” and raised its price target to $475 in a research note Friday. Rajat Gupta, who assumed Tesla coverage from Ryan Brinkman weeks earlier, wrote the note.

Gupta framed Tesla as a builder of “physical AI” — machines that move, sense and act in the real world — rather than solely an automaker. He wrote that this framing shifts the investment focus away from quarterly vehicle delivery tallies.

The analyst pointed to Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot program, and the company’s tightly integrated hardware and software as factors that could expand addressable markets and margins over time. He compared the dynamic to internal robotics development at Amazon, writing: “A classic flywheel effect, somewhat analogous to AWS and Kiva at Amazon.”

JPMorgan estimates Optimus could reduce automotive cost of goods sold by about 5% through manufacturing efficiency gains. The firm projects Tesla’s earnings per share could rise to roughly $7.50 by 2030 and forecasts revenue increasing from about $95 billion last year to more than $200 billion by 2030.

JPMorgan expects nearly half of that revenue growth to come from services and newer businesses tied to autonomy and robotics. The bank projects an earnings inflection beyond 2028.

Gupta noted Tesla is converting the former Model S and Model X production line at its Fremont factory into a humanoid-robot assembly site. The plan calls for low-volume production targeted for this summer and a shift to high-volume output in 2027, with eventual annual capacity of about one million units.

The analyst wrote that factory execution and software reliability will determine how quickly Tesla can scale production and monetize robotics and autonomy products.

The upgrade reverses nearly three years of skepticism from JPMorgan and reframes the company’s advantages around vertical integration and operational experience from high-volume vehicle production.

Investors continue to watch Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving efforts alongside Optimus for potential new revenue streams. JPMorgan placed significant weight on services and newer businesses in its 2030 revenue mix.