India Downgrades 2026 Monsoon Forecast to 90% of Normal

The India Meteorological Department on Friday lowered its forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon to 90% of the long-period average, down from an April estimate of 92%. M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, attributed the downgrade mainly to the likely development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific.

The IMD defines normal monsoon rainfall as 96% to 104% of the long-period average of about 87 centimeters over June to September. At 90% of that average, with a margin of error of 4%, the season falls into the agency’s below-normal category. The office singled out June as likely to be particularly deficient, with rains expected below 92% of the long-period average and a risk of delayed sowing for kharif crops.

El Niño refers to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The IMD said an emerging El Niño could strengthen through the monsoon, increasing the odds of weaker rains in July, August and September. Forecasts show eastern and northeastern India may receive near-normal rainfall, while the monsoon core zone, northwest, central India and parts of the southern peninsula face higher chances of deficits.

The southwest monsoon typically supplies about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and recharges reservoirs and aquifers used for irrigation and drinking water. Agriculture accounts for roughly 18% of gross domestic product and much of kharif crop production depends on rainfall. Reduced seasonal rains would lower soil moisture and can cut yields for paddy, maize, cotton, soybeans and pulses, and reduce residual moisture for winter crops such as wheat and rapeseed.

Small and marginal farmers, who make up the majority of agricultural holdings and often lack irrigation, are particularly exposed to a weak monsoon. Officials noted that lower output can push up food prices while farmers face higher input costs. The IMD report cited disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, as a factor raising fertilizer and other farm input costs.

Lower inflows into reservoirs would reduce water available for irrigation and drinking supplies in key agricultural belts. Past monsoon shortfalls have weighed on rural incomes and consumer demand for goods such as two-wheelers and consumer durables, and have affected fertilizer and tractor sales. Economists say sustained weakness in the monsoon can slow overall economic growth, with India’s economy near the $4 trillion mark.

Officials said the final impact will depend on the timing and distribution of rains, noting that timely precipitation during key crop stages can offset seasonal deficits. They pointed to expanded irrigation coverage, crop diversification, adoption of drought-resistant varieties such as millets, and improved water management as measures that can reduce damage.

Historical data show many El Niño years have brought below-average rainfall; for example, in 2009 rainfall fell to about 78% of the long-period average. Officials added that policymakers may consider measures used in previous deficient seasons, including releasing buffer stocks, arranging imports or restricting exports of certain commodities to stabilise supplies and prices if required.

Daily weather updates and monitoring of Pacific sea-surface temperatures will determine whether the monsoon recovers or requires further forecast revisions. Farmers, markets and policymakers will watch weekly rainfall progress across regions as the season unfolds.