India cuts 2026 monsoon forecast to 90% of normal

India’s weather office on Friday revised its forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon to 90% of the long-period average (LPA), down from a 92% estimate in April. M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, announced the update and cited the likely development of El Niño as the main factor behind the weaker outlook.

The India Meteorological Department defines normal monsoon rainfall as 96%–104% of the LPA, which is about 87 cm over the June–September season. At 90% with a 4% margin of error, the season falls into the “below normal” category. June is expected to be particularly dry, with rainfall forecast below 92% of LPA, a pattern that could delay sowing of kharif crops.

IMD forecasts indicate the emerging El Niño — warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific — could strengthen later in the season and reduce rains across much of South Asia. While eastern and northeastern states may see near-normal rainfall, the monsoon core zone, northwest, central India and parts of the south peninsula face higher probabilities of deficits.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. Agriculture accounts for roughly 18% of GDP and relies heavily on monsoon rains for irrigation, groundwater recharge and rain-fed farming. Lower rainfall can reduce soil moisture, cut yields for kharif crops such as rice, maize, cotton, soybeans and pulses, and reduce residual moisture needed by winter crops like wheat and rapeseed. Small and marginal farmers with limited irrigation access are most exposed to early-season dry spells.

A weak or uneven monsoon can affect rural incomes and consumer spending and has downstream effects on industries linked to farm demand, including two-wheeler sales, consumer goods, fertilizer producers and tractor makers. Reservoirs used for irrigation and drinking water could come under stress if monsoon totals remain low or poorly distributed. Farmers are already facing higher input costs after supply-chain disruptions tied to tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, which have pushed up prices for fertilizers and other essentials.

Policy tools available to authorities include releasing buffer stocks, raising imports or imposing export curbs on selected commodities to stabilise domestic supplies and prices; such measures have been used in past years of deficient rainfall. Historical records show many El Niño years have coincided with below-average rainfall in India; for example, a weak El Niño in 2009 coincided with rainfall near 78% of the LPA.

Officials have highlighted measures to reduce agricultural vulnerability, including expanded irrigation coverage, wider use of drought-tolerant crops such as millets, improved water management and crop diversification. Farmers, markets and policymakers will follow daily weather updates and Pacific Ocean conditions in the coming weeks to monitor whether the outlook improves or worsens.