Hormuz shutdown pushes oil toward $100; seven ETFs jump

The Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed to tanker traffic since late February, removing about 12.8 million barrels per day from the global market, the International Energy Agency reported in its May 2026 Oil Market Report. Global oil inventories fell by about 129 million barrels in March and 117 million barrels in April. The IEA projects the market will remain in deficit through the third quarter and into the fourth.

Brent and U.S. crude prices have climbed more than 40% this year, near $100 a barrel. That price rise has driven gains in seven oil-focused exchange-traded funds. The United States Oil Fund (USO) is up 89.5% year to date, the Invesco DB Oil Fund (DBO) has gained 73.7%, and the United States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL) has returned 55.2%, according to ETF Database.

USO tracks short-term crude futures contracts. DBO follows a rules-based index of futures and holds U.S. Treasury securities for income. USL spreads exposure across 12 consecutive monthly futures contracts to reduce the cost of rolling expiring contracts in a rising market.

Equity ETFs that hold oil company stocks have also risen. The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is up 28.3% year to date, and the State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) has risen 29.9%. Modeling by Rystad indicates U.S. producers could gain about $63.4 billion in additional cash flow if crude averages $100 per barrel this year.

Funds focused on oil services and equipment have benefited from higher activity. The VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is up 49.4% year to date and the State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) has gained 51.1%. Publicly traded shale companies raised their 2026 capital spending forecasts by roughly $490 million in first-quarter filings, and the U.S. rig count has climbed to about 425, Enverus reported.

U.S. crude exports reached a record 5.2 million barrels per day in April as American shipments supplied markets cut off from Gulf flows, partially offsetting lost volumes through the Strait.

Each ETF captures the oil rally differently: futures-based funds move with contract prices and are exposed to the mechanics of rolling contracts, while equity and services funds reflect both commodity prices and company operating results. The IEA’s forecast of continued deficits through the third quarter, along with sustained U.S. exports and increased drilling activity, will be key factors for markets while the waterway remains disrupted.