Four events likely to move the FTSE 100
FTSE 100 hovered near its July 8 high as markets focus on the US‑Iran conflict, UK economic data and Bank of England outlook, the new prime minister and a busy earnings week.
The FTSE 100 held near its highest point since July 8 and is up nearly 10% from its March low. Traders and investors are watching four developments this week that could influence large-cap stocks and market sentiment.
The US‑Iran crisis has escalated in recent days. Reports indicate tens of fatalities in Iran and two US service members were killed in Jordan. Concerns about wider fighting have pushed crude prices higher amid risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices have supported integrated oil companies; Shell has risen about 13% and BP about 15% from monthly lows. Airlines and aerospace firms such as IAG and Rolls‑Royce face pressure if regional routes or airports are disrupted.
UK macroeconomic releases due this week will provide data for the Bank of England’s policy outlook. Economists expect the unemployment rate for May to remain at 4.9%. Headline consumer price inflation for June is forecast at 2.7% year‑on‑year, down from 2.8% in May, and core inflation is forecast at 2.5% from 2.6%. Retail sales for June are scheduled for Friday. Betting markets show roughly a 38% probability of a near‑term Bank rate increase.
Political developments are in focus as Andy Burnham is set to take office as prime minister on Monday after securing the Labour leadership. Reports indicate Shabana Mahmood is a likely candidate for chancellor; she is viewed as more market‑friendly than some other contenders. Investors will look for early policy statements on taxation, public spending and measures aimed at supporting growth.
Corporate earnings complete the week’s agenda. Major US companies reporting include Tesla, Alphabet, Charles Schwab, Chubb, General Motors and GE Vernova. US results often influence global sentiment and can move UK shares through changes in risk appetite. In the UK, BT Group and Compass Group are due to publish quarterly results.
Market participants are tracking geopolitical events, economic data, political developments and corporate results this week, focusing on movements in energy prices, inflation indicators and company profits.
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