Five rate-sensitive stocks that may jump after US CPI

U.S. consumer price index data due Friday may influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates next week. August CPI is forecast to rise 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core inflation expected at 0.2% monthly and 2.4% annually. Markets are pricing roughly a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike and the 10-year Treasury yield is near 5%. A softer core reading would likely push Treasury yields and the dollar lower and reduce borrowing costs that affect mortgages, auto loans and consumer financing.

Opendoor is exposed to housing turnover and the cost of holding inventory. Lower Treasury yields can translate into cheaper mortgage rates and more transaction activity, easing carrying costs on Opendoor’s balance sheet. JPMorgan analyst Dae K Lee maintained an Overweight rating and an $8 price target, writing that Opendoor could reach adjusted net income profitability even without a housing recovery.

Rocket Companies is directly linked to mortgage demand, so lower yields would support refinancing and home-purchase activity and could raise loan origination volumes and fee income. Morgan Stanley analyst Jeffrey Adelson upgraded Rocket to Overweight with a $19 target, writing that the shares were effectively pricing mortgage rates of 6.5% or higher ‘indefinitely’ and projecting strong earnings-per-share growth.

Affirm depends on consumer transaction growth and the cost of funding. Lower yields would ease funding pressure while not eliminating credit risk in its installment-loan portfolio. Loop Capital initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $105 target; analyst Reginald Smith expects gross merchandise volume and revenue growth above 25%.

Carvana’s results are sensitive to vehicle affordability and monthly payment levels. Lower borrowing rates can increase buyers’ purchasing power without forcing large price cuts. Citizens analyst Andrew Boone lowered his target to $83 but continued to describe Carvana as a ‘Structural Winner.’

Coinbase has limited direct exposure to interest rates but is affected by broader risk sentiment. A cooler CPI print would likely reduce Treasury yields and the dollar, support bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and increase trading volumes. Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an Equal Weight rating and a $250 target; analyst Michael Cyprys wrote that he is more constructive on Coinbase’s franchise than on the shares at current valuation.

Traders and investors will watch the CPI report for signals about upcoming Fed policy, mortgage-rate expectations and market positioning ahead of next week’s meeting.