Equities Rally While Bonds, Bitcoin React to Higher Rate Outlook

Equities continued to climb into late May, supported by optimism around artificial intelligence, while bond markets priced a higher path for interest rates. The 30-day moving correlation between the S&P 500 and the U.S. two-year yield fell to very low levels, indicating a split between short-term yields and stock performance.

Geopolitical tensions related to a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher and contributed to shortages of some industrial inputs, including helium. Those moves lifted near-term inflation expectations and shifted market pricing away from bets on Federal Reserve cuts and toward the possibility of renewed hikes.

CoinShares Research described the gap between equities and rates as “a meaningful signal” for portfolio managers, noting that such cross-asset divergences have rarely persisted historically. The firm flagged the change in rate expectations in a research note dated May 29, 2026.

On the cryptocurrency side, CoinShares found that Bitcoin’s early-May advance was driven mainly by large inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and continued purchases by corporate treasuries that hold digital assets. Derivatives activity during that phase remained relatively subdued, a pattern the firm interpreted as structural accumulation rather than leverage-driven buying.

In recent days, however, ETF flows for Bitcoin turned negative and funding rates on perpetual futures contracts rose. Higher funding rates typically reflect greater participation from derivatives traders expressing directional views. CoinShares’ research interpreted the shift as a pickup in active trading after several months of quieter conditions.

The firm’s note added that Bitcoin is being treated increasingly as a macro-sensitive asset and is beginning to price in expectations from rate markets about growth and inflation. CoinShares recommended that financial advisers with clients exposed to digital assets monitor ETF flows, futures funding rates and changes in cross-asset correlations as indicators of shifting market positioning.