Coinbase falls 7% after Baird cuts target to $142

Coinbase shares fell nearly 7% to about $152 on Friday after Baird lowered its price target to $142 from $160 and warned that weak trading volumes could persist, putting pressure on revenue and the company’s valuation.

Baird analyst David Koning labeled Coinbase a “Bearish Fresh Pick” and projected second-quarter revenue about 5% to 6% below Wall Street estimates, with trading volumes expected to decline 15% to 20% sequentially. He wrote that April and May were two of the slowest months in recent years and that early June’s uptick appeared driven largely by heavy Bitcoin trading rather than sustained demand.

Transaction revenue remains a primary driver of Coinbase’s results despite the company expanding into custody, staking and other services. The firm warned that continued weak transaction volumes would weigh on revenue and that falling estimates combined with weaker valuation multiples across fintech names could further pressure the stock.

Baird listed broader headwinds for crypto activity, including a strong S&P 500, persistent inflation, elevated borrowing costs and investor interest shifting to artificial intelligence stocks and new IPOs. The firm pointed to regulatory uncertainty around the proposed CLARITY Act, writing that disagreements over ethics and crypto issuance issues make passage before the November midterms increasingly unlikely. A prediction market currently assigns about a 57% chance the bill becomes law this year, down from roughly 65% a month earlier.

The firm wrote that Coinbase trades at roughly 35 times estimated 2027 earnings per share and outlined a downside scenario in which the stock could fall to $75 to $90 if 2027 EPS drops to $3 and the multiple contracts to 25 to 30 times. Shares have declined about 34% year to date as crypto prices trade near 52-week lows. FactSet data show about 64% of 39 analysts rate the stock a Buy, with an average price target near $231.