Coinbase and Circle shares rise on Bitcoin recovery hopes

Shares of Coinbase Global and Circle Internet Group rose on Wednesday after William Blair wrote many of the key risks facing the companies are already reflected in investor expectations and that both could benefit from a bitcoin recovery. Circle shares gained more than 3% in midday trading and Coinbase shares rose nearly 2%. Bitcoin traded around $64,900 after an intraday high near $65,500.

William Blair revised its forecasts for Coinbase, cutting its 2026 revenue estimate by 12% and its 2027 revenue forecast by 13%. The firm also trimmed EBITDA estimates by 34% for both years. William Blair projected EBITDA would “seem to trough” in the second half of 2026 and expected a rebound in 2027. The brokerage added that consensus estimates across the crypto sector are likely to continue falling and described both companies as offering “outsized leverage to a bitcoin recovery.”

Piper Sandler reduced its price target for Coinbase to $155 from $170 while maintaining a Neutral rating. Analyst Patrick Moley highlighted a split in market activity: subdued spot crypto trading contrasted with record options volumes and strong U.S. cash equities trading. Moley noted prediction markets and perpetual futures drove much of the second-quarter activity, and he pointed to the FIFA World Cup as a factor behind large growth in prediction markets. He also flagged rising competition from perpetual futures as trading shifts toward newer products.

Institutional investors added to positions in crypto-related stocks. ARK Invest bought about 220,000 Circle shares on Tuesday at an average price near $63.22, a purchase valued at roughly $13.9 million. That brought ARK’s disclosed July purchases of Circle to 725,517 shares, following prior buys on July 1 and July 9. Circle represented about 4.37% of the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF and 3.35% of the ARK Innovation ETF as of Wednesday.

Despite the gains, both stocks remain lower for the year. Coinbase shares have fallen nearly 30% in 2026, while Circle is down about 20%. Coinbase operates a major U.S. cryptocurrency exchange serving retail and institutional traders. Circle issues the USDC stablecoin and offers payments and treasury services for crypto businesses.

Analysts and investors said they will watch bitcoin price action and trading volume for indications that could affect revenue and earnings at both companies.