Cards and Pay by Bank reshape multi-rail payments

Global card transactions reached 776 billion in 2024 and are forecast to reach 1.1 trillion by 2029. Account-to-account Pay by Bank volumes are projected to climb from 60 billion in 2024 to more than 185 billion by 2029, indicating concurrent growth of card and bank-initiated rails.

Tokenisation replaces a card number with a secure digital token that reduces exposure of account data in online and in-app payments. Digital wallets store those tokens and present them to merchants and devices, allowing issuers and platforms to set rules for when and how a credential is used. Payments routed as card tokens or as bank transfers can follow different processes for routing, fraud checks and settlement, which affects acceptance costs for merchants and acquirers.

Pay by Bank solutions are expanding beyond niche checkout options in parts of Europe and other markets where direct bank transfers can carry lower fees and offer real-time settlement. Merchants decide which rails to offer at checkout based on fees, settlement speed and customer preference.

Agent-initiated payment models, including Visa TAP, Mastercard Agent Pay and Google AP2, let third parties start payments on behalf of consumers with consent. Agent initiation raises questions about fraud liability, authentication standards and dispute rights. Existing chargeback and reversal rules may not fully address payments that intermediaries start on a consumer’s behalf.

Banks, card issuers and payment processors are adapting systems and operations. Firms need technology that can choose the appropriate rail in real time, apply matching risk and fraud checks, and manage settlement and reconciliation across multiple channels.

Regulation, reimbursement rules and dispute handling affect financial outcomes for issuers and acquirers. Changes to consumer protection or dispute rules can shift which party bears losses from fraud or failed transactions and can change how merchants price acceptance.

A webinar in 2026, hosted in association with ACI Worldwide, will examine payment architecture that supports tokenised cards, embedded checkout and bank-initiated payments while addressing fraud controls and regulatory compliance. Dean Wallace, director of consumer payments modernization at ACI Worldwide, is scheduled to speak and Jane Cooper will moderate.

For more than a decade the industry forecast the end of the card; current transaction data and forecasts show cards persisting as tokenised credentials alongside rising Pay by Bank volumes, creating a multi-rail payments environment.