Cards, Pay by Bank reshape consumer payments rails

Global card transactions reached 776 billion in 2024 and are projected to reach 1.1 trillion by 2029. Account-to-account (A2A) volumes are forecast to increase from 60 billion in 2024 to more than 185 billion by 2029.

Card credentials are increasingly tokenised and provisioned to digital wallets. Tokenised credentials can be reused across devices and used in embedded checkout and agent-initiated commerce. That pattern alters processing and routing choices for merchants and acquirers and changes fee and liability structures for issuers when card credentials are used outside a physical card-present interaction.

Pay by Bank A2A methods are expanding beyond niche use cases into routine checkout options in parts of Europe and other markets. A2A transactions bring a different settlement profile and fraud characteristics that merchants, banks and processors must manage alongside card flows.

Agent-initiated commerce allows a trusted third party to initiate a payment on behalf of a consumer. Shifting initiation away from a cardholder’s direct action raises questions about consumer consent, fraud exposure and dispute rights. Liability frameworks and dispute processes need to allocate risk and reimbursement across issuers, acquirers and agents.

Operationally, banks, issuers and acquirers face a multi-rail environment that requires unified platforms to handle routing, settlement, reconciliation and fraud detection across cards, A2A rails and agent flows. Technical needs include enhanced token management, real-time decisioning and stronger failover arrangements to preserve uptime and reconcile profit-and-loss impacts across different fee models.

Merchant economics affect how revenue and costs are distributed. Interchange, merchant discount rates and regulatory reimbursement rules influence acceptance decisions and competitive pricing. Regulatory changes that alter liability, data sharing or settlement timing prompt banks and processors to adjust acceptance flows and fraud controls, with measurable effects on issuer and acquirer P&L.

An industry webinar in 2026, held in association with ACI Worldwide, will examine these trends and the architectural implications for consumer payments. Dean Wallace, director of Consumer Payments Modernization at ACI Worldwide, is listed among the participants to discuss card growth, Pay by Bank scaling and operating-model design for a multi-rail payments environment.