Cards and Pay by Bank Reshape Consumer Payments

Global card transactions reached 776 billion in 2024 and are projected to reach 1.1 trillion by 2029. Account-to-account payments are forecast to rise from 60 billion in 2024 to more than 185 billion by 2029. Card and A2A rails are expanding at the same time rather than one replacing the other.

Industry participants describe the card as a programmable, tokenised credential that lives in digital wallets, embedded checkout and third-party initiated flows. Tokenisation replaces the card number with digital tokens that can be used across devices and platforms and can reduce some fraud vectors. Digital wallets and embedded checkout keep tokenised credentials central to the customer experience. Pay by Bank provides an account-based checkout option that can lower acceptance costs and allow direct bank settlement. Examples of third-party initiated programs include Visa TAP, Mastercard Agent Pay and Google AP2.

Banks, issuers and acquirers that manage both card and A2A traffic face operational changes. Firms need operating models that can route transactions, apply fraud rules and reconcile settlements across multiple rails. Merchants see different cost and risk profiles depending on whether payments flow over card networks, wallets or bank-initiated transfers. Reimbursement rules and regulatory requirements will affect how costs and liabilities are allocated between issuers, acquirers and merchants.

Third-party initiated payments raise questions about consumer protections and dispute handling. Industry participants note that it must be clarified whether chargeback rights and other protections tied to card networks carry over to bank-initiated transactions and how liability is assigned when disputes occur.

Acceptance economics are changing. Tokenised credentials support in-app and recurring payments. A2A flows are better suited to use cases where direct settlement or lower fees matter. Merchant choice of rail will reflect trade-offs among cost, conversion rates, fraud profile and user experience.

A webinar hosted by ACI Worldwide will convene payments experts in 2026 to discuss architectural implications of a multi-rail environment. Dean Wallace, director of consumer payments modernization at ACI Worldwide, is listed as a speaker and Jane Cooper is listed as moderator.

Industry participants expect firms to integrate tokenisation, wallet services, bank-initiated rails and third-party initiated interfaces into their operating models. That integration will shape fraud management, consumer dispute rights, merchant economics and regulatory compliance.