Cards and Pay-by-Bank Grow Together in Multi-Rail Shift

Global card transactions totaled 776 billion in 2024 and are projected to reach 1.1 trillion by 2029. Account-to-account pay-by-bank (A2A) volumes are forecast to increase from 60 billion in 2024 to more than 185 billion by 2029. Data indicate both rails are expanding in parallel rather than one replacing the other.

Cards are being issued as tokenised, programmable credentials that operate inside digital wallets, embedded checkouts and new agent-initiated payment models. Tokenisation substitutes card numbers with secure tokens for use in wallets and browser or in-app checkouts. Programmability allows merchants and platforms to automate recurring payments, set dynamic spending limits and conduct merchant-initiated authorisations.

Pay-by-Bank is moving beyond niche use in parts of Europe to wider acceptance as a lower-cost, real-time bank transfer option at checkout. The rail offers faster settlement for merchants and can reduce acceptance costs relative to card networks in some markets.

Third-party initiated payments, described by industry participants as agentic commerce, let a trusted agent trigger a payment with consumer consent. Examples include Visa TAP, Mastercard Agent Pay and Google AP2. Those models change who initiates a transaction and have implications for fraud detection, liability and dispute handling because the initiating party may be neither the consumer nor the merchant.

Banks, card issuers and acquirers are adapting technology and operations to support multiple rails. Firms say unified processing platforms are required to route transactions, apply risk rules and reconcile settlements across different networks. Operating models must make routing decisions, apply fraud scoring and manage settlement timing for cards, wallets, Pay-by-Bank and agent-initiated flows.

Economic differences between rails affect commercial decisions. Cards offer broad acceptance, established chargeback and dispute frameworks and consumer reward incentives. Pay-by-Bank tends to lower transaction costs for merchants and offer quicker settlement. Reimbursement rules, merchant pricing models and regulatory requirements determine which costs affect issuers or acquirers and alter profit and loss outcomes across the payment chain.

Regulatory and reimbursement policies influence where each rail gains traction. In markets that promote A2A interoperability or impose interchange caps, pay-by-bank adoption rises. In regions with well-established card infrastructure and strong consumer protections, cards remain the default payment method for many transactions.

Analysts previously forecast the end of the card. Current projections show card volumes growing while A2A expands from a smaller base. A webinar in association with ACI Worldwide will convene industry experts to discuss the architectural and operational implications of multiple rails. Participants include Dean Wallace, director of consumer payments modernization at ACI Worldwide, with Jane Cooper serving as moderator.