Cards and Pay by Bank grow as multi-rail payments rise

Global card transactions reached 776 billion in 2024 and are projected to reach 1.1 trillion by 2029. Account-to-account (A2A) Pay by Bank volumes are forecast to increase from 60 billion in 2024 to more than 185 billion by 2029. The projections show growth in both card and bank-initiated payments over the next five years.

Card credentials are being converted into tokenised, programmable credentials held in digital wallets, embedded checkouts and third-party apps. Pay by Bank payments are initiated directly from a consumer’s bank account and have expanded from niche checkout options to broader use in parts of Europe.

Banks, card issuers and acquirers are supporting a wider range of authentication flows, token management systems and settlement arrangements. Industry participants describe a need for an operating model that can route transactions across rails, manage token lifecycles and reconcile differing settlement and dispute processes while handling higher real-time volumes.

Agentic commerce refers to payments initiated by a third party or agent on behalf of a consumer. Examples include Visa TAP, Mastercard Agent Pay and Google AP2. These flows raise questions about fraud liability, authentication standards and dispute rights when an agent starts a payment rather than the consumer at checkout.

Lower-cost A2A rails and changes to interchange and reimbursement frameworks affect issuer and acquirer revenue. Tokenisation and embedded credentials create opportunities for new services and data-based propositions. Acquirers face pressure to accept multiple rails, and issuers must invest in token management and fraud controls to maintain card use in digital contexts.

Adoption patterns vary by region. Open banking frameworks and bank-led A2A solutions have accelerated Pay by Bank uptake in Europe. In other regions, card networks remain the dominant acceptance infrastructure while wallets and tokenisation extend card utility in mobile and in-app payments. Forecasts show both rails increasing in volume through 2029.

A webinar hosted in association with ACI Worldwide will convene industry experts to examine technical architecture, acceptance economics and consumer experience across payment rails. The panel includes Dean Wallace, director of consumer payments modernization at ACI Worldwide, with Jane Cooper moderating. The session will consider how banks, issuers and acquirers should configure technology and operations for tokenised cards, digital wallets, pay-by-bank options and agent-initiated flows, and how to address fraud and consumer protection issues.