Bitcoin Rises After Soft Jobs Report as Yields Drop

Bitcoin rebounded from a cycle low near $57,000 after the June U.S. jobs report showed weaker payrolls and two-year Treasury yields fell more than five basis points. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged and the dot plot shifted to higher expected rates for 2026.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, below a consensus near 115,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The weaker-than-expected payrolls print coincided with a drop in short-term Treasury yields and a bounce in bitcoin prices.

At its June meeting, which was Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first, the Fed left the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%. The central bank’s median projection for the end of 2026 increased to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, and 17 of 18 officials indicated inflation risks are tilted to the upside. Warsh referenced the Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices when discussing the inflation outlook.

According to CoinShares Research, the market reaction highlighted bitcoin’s sensitivity to near-term rate expectations. The firm reported that the recent bounce followed a period of heavy distribution by large holders and shifting ETF flows rather than a clear change in macro policy.

CoinShares said the cohort holding more than 100,000 BTC distributed roughly $39 billion into bitcoin’s October 2025 peak and that selling by that group has largely stopped. The firm added that those large holders have not resumed re-accumulation at scale. Strategy-related supply tied to MicroStrategy and similar corporates remains a potential overhang.

Industry flow data compiled by CoinShares show bitcoin ETFs recorded about $2.7 billion of net outflows year to date, while thematic AI ETFs took in roughly $5.5 billion over the same period. CoinShares characterized the pattern as capital rotating into crowded trades rather than a structural rejection of bitcoin.

On regulation and geopolitics, prospects for passage of the CLARITY Act this year have diminished amid a busier Senate calendar, reducing near-term clarity on U.S. digital-asset rules. The Iran conflict continues to affect energy prices and is included in officials’ economic assessments.

Market participants noted that the weak payrolls report coincided with falling short-term yields and a rebound in bitcoin, while the Fed’s policy projections indicate a still-restrictive outlook. Traders and allocators are monitoring rate moves, ETF flows and large-holder activity for further signs of sustained price movement.