Bitcoin ETFs show early signs of stabilization

Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $8 billion in outflows across eight consecutive weeks, the longest streak on record. Reports of inflows over the past three trading sessions have not been confirmed in official filings and should not be assumed to mark a sustained reversal.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 16-17 meeting show the committee left the target range at 3.50%–3.75% and removed language referencing future easing. Core PCE inflation ran at 3.3% in April and tracked toward about 3.4% in May. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in June from 4.3% in May. The minutes leave a September rate decision possible. Higher real interest rates and a stronger dollar have been cited as factors weighing on bitcoin demand and ETF flows.

Developments around the Iran ceasefire increased uncertainty in the Middle East. Traders and allocators adjusted positions defensively, noting that a firmer rate outlook and renewed geopolitical noise can reduce appetite for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Large custodial sales generated smaller price responses than in prior months. MicroStrategy holds about 4% of total bitcoin supply. A 32 BTC sale in early June coincided with an approximately 6% drop in MicroStrategy stock and a near 2% pullback in bitcoin, moving prices toward about $71,500. A 3,588 BTC sale in early July produced little price impact as bitcoin traded near $63,800 afterward. Market participants attribute the muted reaction to growing acceptance that large holders may sell periodically.

Legislation known as the CLARITY Act has not reached a floor vote and is stalled over a developer-exemption clause, ethics language tied to administration crypto holdings, and a stablecoin-yield provision that conflicts with another bill. Betting markets now place the chance of passage in 2026 at roughly 48%, down from about 74% a month earlier. The Senate returns on July 13, narrowing the legislative window before the August recess.

Allocators continue to monitor official fund filings, macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments for confirmation of any sustained change in flows and prices.