ARK: Starlink could justify near $2 trillion SpaceX value

ARK Invest’s chief futurist Brett Winton says Starlink by itself could support a near $2 trillion valuation for SpaceX as the company prepares for a Nasdaq debut next week. He based the assessment on current subscriber counts, network capacity and revenue estimates.

Winton estimates Starlink has passed about 10 million active subscribers. He reports the constellation delivers roughly 500 terabits per second of bandwidth and that current annual revenue is about $14 billion, with sales projections above $20 billion for the year.

A central part of ARK’s case is faster launch capability from SpaceX’s Starship. Winton projects each Starship could place about 60 terabits per second of bandwidth into orbit and noted, “Ten launches can duplicate their existing capacity in space.” He argued that repeated Starship flights could allow Starlink’s in-space bandwidth to scale quickly.

ARK’s open-source model produces an expected enterprise value for SpaceX of about $2.5 trillion by 2030, with a bull case near $3.1 trillion and a bear case around $1.7 trillion. The analysis also highlights overlap between orbital capacity and large-scale artificial intelligence computing as a potential source of future demand.

On orbital data centers, ARK’s research finds that if launch costs fall below $100 per kilogram, compute hosted in orbit could cost roughly 25% less than equivalent terrestrial systems while avoiding some grid interconnection delays and local power constraints. Winton referenced plans by SpaceX leadership to add AI compute capacity in orbit.

ARK holds private shares of SpaceX as the largest position in its Venture Fund, which has gained more than 70% over the past 12 months. The firm’s estimates increase attention on SpaceX’s near-term commercial performance and on technical milestones such as repeatable Starship operations and continued Starlink subscriber growth.