Amazon Prime Day Begins as AI Features Face Investor Scrutiny

Amazon launched its 12th Prime Day on Tuesday, starting a 96-hour sale across more than 35 countries. The event will test whether Alexa for Shopping and other artificial intelligence investments raise engagement and sales.

Prime Day runs for four days and is the first edition since 2021 to fall in the second quarter. Amazon moved the event from July to late June to avoid the World Cup and U.S. 250th anniversary festivities and to capture summer spending on outdoor gear, travel items and seasonal apparel.

Alexa for Shopping, introduced in May, offers personalized product recommendations, price tracking for up to a year, price alerts and the option to automatically place orders when a set price is reached. The company positions the feature as a tool to help shoppers find deals and remain on Amazon’s platform.

Analysts have issued several forecasts for the 96-hour event. Bank of America estimates $21.6 billion in goods sold, a 5% increase from last year. JPMorgan projects $7 billion to $8 billion in incremental global revenue for the second quarter and expects daily sales growth of about 6% for third-party sellers and 7% for first-party sales during the promotion. eMarketer forecasts $15.7 billion in U.S. e-commerce sales for Amazon during Prime Day, a 7.1% rise from last year, and expects Amazon to capture roughly 60.3% of U.S. e-commerce sales during the event.

Adobe Analytics expects average daily online spending during Prime Day to be about 84% higher than June’s daily average and projects total Prime Day spending will exceed combined Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending in 2025. Adobe highlights strong demand for children’s clothing, backpacks, refrigerators, power tools and vacuum cleaners, and forecasts average discounts near 23% on apparel and electronics and about 19% on toys.

Walmart opened a seven-day sales event and Target is running Circle Deal Days at the same time, creating overlapping promotions aimed at price-conscious shoppers.

Inflation and higher fuel prices are affecting household budgets. Consumer prices rose 4.2% in May, the fastest pace in three years, and rising fuel costs linked to tensions in the Middle East have added pressure. Amazon is promoting deals on groceries, household essentials, travel supplies and school items, and reports that fresh food and essential products are taking up a larger share of Prime members’ baskets as same-day delivery expands.

William Stern, chief executive of small-business lender Cardiff, warned: “Prime Day isn’t going to be about buying big TVs or fun stuff this year. It’s for buying toilet paper and garbage bags on sale. Families are literally waiting for these discounts just to buy regular everyday things because their bank accounts are empty.”

Investors will watch several metrics to judge Prime Day: total merchandise sold, average order value, the share of essentials versus discretionary items, and whether Alexa for Shopping increases conversion rates and repeat usage. Amazon has invested billions in computing infrastructure for AI and is developing its own shopping tools; market participants will use Prime Day results to evaluate the financial impact of those investments.