10-year Treasury 4.56%; 30-year mortgage near 6.51%

On May 22, 2026 the yield on the 10-year Treasury finished at 4.56% and the 2-year note ended at 4.13%. The 10-2 spread is in negative territory. Freddie Mac’s Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate near 6.51%.

An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields fall below shorter-term yields. Historically the 10-2 spread has turned negative ahead of some recessions. The gap between the two maturities has led recessions by as little as 18 weeks and as long as 92 weeks in past episodes. Measured from the first date the spread went negative, the average lead time to a recession is about 48 weeks; measured from the last positive reading before a recession, the average lead time is about 18.5 weeks.

The 10-2 spread was continuously negative from July 5, 2022, through August 26, 2024, with the last recorded negative reading on September 5, 2024. A shorter-term comparison, the 10-year versus 3-month spread, was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024, and has traded between positive and negative since February 26, 2026. For the 10-3 month spread, lead times to recessions range from 34 to 69 weeks; averages are about 48 weeks from the first negative reading and about 13 weeks from the last positive reading. There was a false positive in 1998 and multiple negative episodes before the 2009 recession.

The Federal Funds Rate affects bank funding costs and can influence mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve began cutting its policy rate in September 2024. Mortgage rates did not fall immediately after that change; more recently they have declined alongside the Fed’s easing. Freddie Mac’s survey shows the current 30-year fixed rate at about 6.51%, the highest reading since last September.

Factors affecting current Treasury yields and the curve include prior Fed tightening, market expectations for future policy, and demand for Treasury securities. The 10-year yield has had wide swings over decades, including elevated levels during the 1970s and early 1980s. Investors and market participants use long-term data and recent yield movements to assess conditions in the Treasury market.

Exchange-traded funds that track parts of the Treasury market include Vanguard’s 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT). Federal Reserve policy and Treasury market dynamics continue to influence the pricing of fixed-income securities and mortgage products, and market participants are monitoring the inverted curve and mortgage rates for further developments.