10-year Treasury at 4.45%; 30-year mortgage near 6.53%

U.S. Treasury yields moved higher at the long end of the curve on May 29, 2026. The 10-year note finished the day at 4.45% and the 2-year at 3.98%, narrowing the 10-2 spread to about 47 basis points. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate near 6.53%.

An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields. The 10-2 spread had been continuously negative from July 5, 2022, through August 26, 2024, with the last recorded negative reading on September 5, 2024.

Historically the timing between a negative 10-2 spread and the start of a recession has varied. Measured examples show lead times ranging from about 18 to 92 weeks. Using historical averages, the interval from the first negative 10-2 reading to a recession is about 48 weeks, while the average interval from the last positive 10-2 reading before a recession is about 18.5 weeks.

A shorter-term gauge, the 10-year minus 3-month spread, was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024. Historical lead times for that spread run from about 34 to 69 weeks. On average, the first negative reading precedes a recession by roughly 48 weeks; when measured from the last positive reading after a negative period, the average lead is about 13 weeks.

Federal Reserve policy affects Treasury yields and mortgage rates by changing short-term funding costs for banks. The Fed began cutting its policy rate in September 2024; mortgage rates did not fall immediately with that action but have shown declines more recently alongside easing in short-term interest rates.

Over longer periods, the 10-year yield has moved through multi-decade cycles, rising in the 1970s and 1980s and falling in later decades. Investors can use instruments that track short-, intermediate- and long-term Treasuries to shift exposure across different parts of the yield curve.