10-year Treasury 4.38%, 2-year 4.07% on June 26
On June 26, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.38% and the 2-year at 4.07%, a 10-2 spread of about 31 basis points.
The 10-year Treasury yield finished June 26, 2026 at 4.38% and the 2-year at 4.07% in U.S. Treasury trading, leaving the 10-2 spread near 31 basis points. Trading reflected ongoing attention to interest-rate trends and the shape of the yield curve.
An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields fall below shorter-term yields. The 10-2 spread was continuously negative from July 5, 2022, through August 26, 2024. The last recorded negative reading on that spread was September 5, 2024. Using the first date a spread turns negative, the average lead time to a recession is about 48 weeks (roughly 11 months). Using the last positive reading before the spread turned negative shortens that average lead time to about 18.5 weeks (about 4.25 months). The 1998 episode shows a brief negative reading without a subsequent recession, and the 2009 recession followed multiple negative stretches.
The 10-year versus 3-month spread was negative from October 25, 2022, through December 12, 2024. Since February 26, 2025 the 10-3 month spread has moved between positive and negative territory. Measured from the first negative date, the 10-3 month spread’s average lead time to a recession is about 48 weeks. Measured from the last positive reading after a negative run, the average lead time is about 13 weeks.
Federal Reserve policy has been a central influence on market rates. The Fed began cutting the Federal Funds Rate in September 2024 after an earlier tightening cycle. Changes in the Fed rate affect bank lending costs and mortgage pricing. Freddie Mac’s most recent Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.49%.
Long-term charts of the 10-year yield dating back to 1965 show periods of higher inflation and monetary tightening, including the high-inflation era of the 1970s and early 1980s. Investors also examine Treasury performance alongside pre-recession equity peaks and the Federal Funds Rate history since 2007 to put current yields in context.
Exchange-traded funds that track Treasury maturities include the Vanguard 0–3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT). Market participants continue to monitor Treasury yields, yield-curve spreads and mortgage rates for developments affecting borrowing costs and financial conditions.
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