Tesla slips 2% as SpaceX jumps; delivery outlook rises
Tesla shares fell about 2% to $402.39 as analysts grew more optimistic about second-quarter vehicle deliveries; SpaceX rose about 8% to $208.39, valuing it near $2.8 trillion.
On Tuesday, Tesla shares fell about 2% to $402.39 while SpaceX shares rose roughly 8% to $208.39. The moves left SpaceX with an estimated market value near $2.8 trillion and Tesla with a market capitalization around $1.3 trillion. The S&P 500 was up about 1.6% on the day.
Goldman Sachs increased its forecast for Tesla’s second-quarter 2026 vehicle deliveries to 420,000 from 405,000, while keeping a Neutral rating and a $375 price target. That revised forecast sits above a consensus estimate near 400,000 vehicles. Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney wrote, “We believe that Tesla’s 2Q26 vehicle deliveries are likely tracking ahead of consensus.”
Regional sales data through May showed differences across markets. European registration data pointed to year-over-year growth of roughly 85% to 90% through May, and early June daily reports indicated deliveries up about 20% to start the month. Goldman Sachs noted part of Europe’s improvement reflects an easier comparison after Tesla’s European deliveries fell 29% year over year in the second quarter of 2025.
In China, data from the China Passenger Car Association indicated high single-digit year-over-year growth through May. Other Asia-Pacific markets, including South Korea and Australia, reported strong year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter gains through May. By contrast, U.S. delivery data cited by Goldman Sachs from Motor Intelligence showed deliveries through May were down by the mid-teens percentage range compared with a year earlier.
Wall Street currently expects Tesla to deliver about 1.7 million vehicles in 2026, up from roughly 1.6 million in 2025. Tesla reported a record 497,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025, a surge that followed purchases ahead of the expiration of the federal $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit. The end of that incentive has affected broader industry demand.
Beyond vehicle deliveries, Tesla has expanded its AI and autonomy initiatives. The company launched an AI-trained robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, about a year ago and has since added service in several other cities. Tesla is also preparing a third-generation version of its Optimus humanoid robot, with an unveiling expected later this summer.
Tesla is scheduled to report second-quarter delivery figures, and the company has product announcements planned for later this summer.
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