SpaceX stock falls 32% from IPO peak; valuation remains high

SpaceX’s stock opened to the public at $135 on June 12, rose to an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16 and traded around $153 on June 27, a decline of about 32% from the peak but still above the IPO price. After the pullback, the shares traded at roughly 107 times projected 2025 sales.

The stock climbed in the first days of trading and then lost much of those gains over the following week. A small public float has limited the number of shares available to trade, a factor that can amplify price moves when demand outpaces supply.

At about 107 times projected 2025 revenue, the company’s price-to-sales multiple is far higher than many peers; one large technology company recently traded near 21 times sales.

Financial results for 2025 show revenue of $18.7 billion and a net loss of $4.9 billion. Revenue growth has been driven by Starlink satellite broadband and a leading position in commercial and government launches, while the company is not profitable at the consolidated level.

Analysts estimate SpaceX launched about 83% of the mass sent to orbit from Earth in 2025, roughly ten times the amount of its nearest competitor. Starlink has become the clearest near-term cash generator, supported by the company’s ability to manufacture and launch satellites at its own cost. Analysts expect Starlink to remain the main source of cash flow over the medium term.

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens credited SpaceX’s launch cost advantage, Starlink’s scale and the possibility of orbital computing infrastructure, but wrote that shares are likely to look ‘overvalued in almost any scenario, at least in the near term.’ Morningstar added that long-term investors may gain ‘more margin of safety’ after lockup periods end and more insider and employee shares become available.

Later this year, additional insider and employee shares will become eligible for sale, increasing the available supply and giving the market a test of natural demand.

SpaceX is being added to Russell indexes and is scheduled to join the Nasdaq 100 on July 7, a change that will require funds tracking those benchmarks to purchase the stock and could provide short-term technical support.