SpaceX climbs premarket on Nasdaq-100 inclusion bets

SpaceX shares climbed about 6.7% in premarket trading to above $170 on Monday after the company’s Nasdaq debut. The stock closed its first trading session at $160.95 after an IPO priced at $135, bringing the company’s market value above $2 trillion.

Investors are betting the stock will be added to the Nasdaq-100 within days. Analysts estimate that inclusion could generate $7 billion to $10 billion in passive inflows. Nasdaq will set SpaceX’s index weight using its public float, treating the company as if it were worth about $225 billion rather than its full market capitalization. FTSE Russell and MSCI have scheduled further index additions for June 26 and June 29.

Retail buyers drove heavy demand in the IPO. Data show individual investors purchased roughly $117.6 million of SpaceX shares on the Friday of the offering, a record for a debut session. Retail investors received about 20% of the allocation.

Forecasts for long-term revenue vary. Elon Musk said SpaceX could reach up to $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. Independent estimates put potential 2030 revenue nearer $470 billion in one projection and about $330 billion in another. SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025.

Analysts and portfolio managers warned that volatility could be elevated while the public float remains small relative to total valuation. Market moves were also affected by reports of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran that could end a three-month conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Futures linked to the S&P 500 rose about 1.3%, Dow futures gained about 1% and Nasdaq futures advanced more than 2% on the news.

Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC Global Investment Research, noted that confirmed progress on a U.S.-Iran agreement would lift risk appetite, while setbacks would likely reduce gains for risk assets.

Trading will be watched as more shares enter the market and as the company is added to major indexes later this month.