KeyBanc Recommends Buying Rocket Lab, Firefly After SPCX Debut

SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut pushed the company past a $2 trillion valuation and prompted selling in other publicly traded space companies as investors raised cash to buy SPCX shares, producing a pullback across the sector.

KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock recommended buying Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Firefly Aerospace (FLY), assigning a $135 target for Rocket Lab and a $50 target for Firefly. The $135 target implies roughly 25% upside from current levels, according to KeyBanc.

KeyBanc highlighted Rocket Lab’s roughly $2.2 billion backlog, its alignment with U.S. national security and NASA priorities, and its balance sheet strength. The firm noted that Rocket Lab’s pending inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 could increase demand from passive funds and ETFs. In his note, Leshock called Rocket Lab “the clear No. 2 in the commercial space sector” and described it as “an exceptionally rare, well-capitalized pure-play opportunity.”

For Firefly, KeyBanc pointed to operational progress since the company’s public debut last August and a product lineup of medium-class launch vehicles and orbital services. The analyst said those capabilities target a shortage of dedicated launch options and could enable Firefly to compete for federal contracts as defense programs and NASA initiatives increase spending. Leshock described Firefly as “uniquely positioned to capture lucrative federal market share.”

The firm noted that the recent weakness in space stocks, including a drop in the iShares Aerospace & Defense ETF, contrasts with what it identified as accelerating satellite deployments, rising demand for space-based data and tight global launch capacity. KeyBanc framed those conditions as supportive of pricing power for reliable commercial launch providers.

KeyBanc concluded that institutional capital flows prompted by SpaceX’s listing may shift into proven alternatives over time, naming Rocket Lab and Firefly among potential beneficiaries. The firm presented its price targets as analyst forecasts rather than guarantees of future performance.