Crypto steady as Fed signals higher-for-longer policy

At its June meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and signalled a higher-for-longer policy stance. Bitcoin and U.S. equity indexes fell modestly and weekly outflows from crypto exchange-traded products slowed to $149 million.

The Fed described economic activity as ‘solid’, pointed to elevated uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, and noted that inflation remains above target in part because of energy-related supply shocks. June projections showed a median federal funds rate of 3.8% at the end of 2026 and 3.6% for 2027. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh removed some forward guidance and emphasised greater reliance on incoming data.

Markets moved slightly risk-off after the release. The S&P 500 declined about 1.2%, the Nasdaq fell about 1.3% and Bitcoin dropped roughly 1.6% on the day. Analysts attributed the reaction to higher expected real interest rates, which can reduce demand for liquidity-sensitive assets.

Data showed global digital-asset ETP outflows eased to $149 million across issuers, an improvement from larger outflows in recent weeks. Market participants tracking flows said the figure did not amount to a clear bullish reversal.

On-chain trading activity rose ahead of the planned SpaceX IPO. The SPCX perpetual contract on the Hyperliquid platform recorded more than $1.3 billion in 24-hour volume, with about $291 million in open interest on the pre-IPO perpetual complex and roughly $6 billion in cumulative volume since launch. Traders are increasingly using on-chain venues for price discovery in assets that traditional venues may limit.

Market participants noted that persistent inflation and a Fed approach that reacts to incoming data could increase volatility across risk assets. Steadier ETP flows and the growth of on-chain trading offer additional channels for liquidity and price-setting.