10-Year Treasury 4.48% on June 12; 30-Year Mortgage 6.52%

On June 12, 2026 the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.48% and the 2-year at 4.09%. The Federal Reserve began cutting the federal funds rate in September 2024. Freddie Mac’s Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.52%.

Market participants follow Treasury yield spreads to gauge economic risk. The 10-year minus 2-year spread was continuously negative from July 5, 2022 through August 26, 2024 and was last negative on September 5, 2024. Historically, the interval from the first negative 10-2 reading to a recession averages about 48 weeks; measuring from the last positive reading before a recession gives an average lead of about 18.5 weeks.

The 10-year minus 3-month spread was negative from October 25, 2022 to December 12, 2024 and has moved between positive and negative since February 26, 2025. For that measure, the average lead from the first negative reading to recession is about 48 weeks, while the average lead from the last positive reading is about 13 weeks.

There have been prior instances that did not lead directly to recession. The 1998 inversion was brief and did not precede a downturn, and spreads turned negative multiple times before the 2009 recession.

Long-term charts of the 10-year yield extend back to 1965. Those records show elevated yields in the 1970s and early 1980s during periods of high inflation and policy tightening, followed by a multi-decade decline in yields thereafter.

Exchange-traded funds that track Treasury securities include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT).

Traders, advisors and analysts monitor Treasury spreads, Federal Reserve statements and incoming economic data for information on rate expectations and market developments.